សេវាកម្មការស្រាវជ្រាវ និងនវានុវត្តន៍ទស្សនាវដ្តីស្រាវជ្រាវវិទ្យាសាស្ត្រកម្ពុជា សម្រាប់ធុរកិច្ច និងប្រតិបត្តិវិជ្ជាជីវការបោះពុម្ពផ្សាយការបោះពុម្ពផ្សាយលម្អិតThe Impact of Monetary Policy and Climate Change on Cambodia’s GDP Growth: A VAR Analysis

The Impact of Monetary Policy and Climate Change on Cambodia’s GDP Growth: A VAR Analysis

Sophat Phon

Institute for Banking Studies, National Bank of Cambodia, Cambodia

Pidor Ngin

Institute for Banking Studies, National Bank of Cambodia, Cambodia

Sophalla Chou

National Bank of Cambodia, Cambodia

Sophy Khan

Royal Academy of Cambodia, Cambodia

ISSN: 3078-4131 (Print)

DOI: https://doi.org/10.71215/cjbpp.202624

Keywords: Monetary Policy, Climate Change, GDP Growth, Cambodia

Published: 2026-01-06

How to Cite in APA Style: Phon. S., Ngin. P., Chou. S. & Khan. S, (2026). The impact of monetary policy and climate change on Cambodia’s GDP growth: A VAR Analysis. Cambodia Journal for Business and Professional Practice, 2026(2), 82–106.

ទាញយក

Abstract

This study examines the complex relationship between climate shocks, monetary policy, and Cambodia’s GDP growth using IMF data from 1996–2022 with econometric models such as Ordinary Least Squares(OLS) and Vector Autoregression (VAR) model. The findings reveal that climate shocks affect short-term rise in GDP growth, largely due to early adaptation efforts and temporary boosts in agricultural activities. However, these effects are not sustained. GDP responds positively to climate shocks for a short run but diminishes and as negative effects in a long run, reflecting the vulnerability of Cambodia’s agriculture-based economy to repeated or severe climatic events. This means that GDP rises up in a short run before declining, underscoring the temporary nature of such benefits. Monetary policy, supported by a managed-float exchange rate and Central Bank interventions, has stabilized growth, yet its impact is constrained by high dollarization, which limits control over interest rates and money supply. Expanding the use of the Riel would enhance policy flexibility and support climate adaptation. Overall, monetary policy alone cannot secure resilience; structural reforms in agriculture, financial systems, and climate-resilient infrastructure are essential. Data limitations, particularly the underrepresentation of the informal sector, remain an important consideration.

Authors’ Biography

Phon Sophat earned his first PhD in Economics in 2019 from Thammasat University, Thailand with BOT/ADB scholarship. Currently, he is a second PhD candidate in International Development at Nagoya University, Japan, with a Nagoya University Scholarship from 2023 to 2026. He has participated in many national and international conferences and has been a speaker at many well-known institutions such as UNESCAP, NBC, Sophia University in Japan, and Konrad International in Germany, among others. Dr. Phon ‘s filed of research includes microfinance sector, econometrics, business and macroeconomics. His focus is econometric applied on the modelling of economic trends on the macro levels. Currently, He has authored more than 20 research papers and books. He is professor at National University of Myanmar, Global campus, Royal Academy of Cambodia, Cambodia, Human Resource University and RULE-Lumiere Lyon2 University, France, for undergraduate and graduate levels. He has been teaching at higher educational levels for nearly 20 years in the relevant fields.

Ngin Pidor works as deputy director of Institute for Banking Studies, Cambodia and a lecturer in the Faculty of Information Technology at NUM, has a rich academic background and professional experience. He is PhD candidate at National University of Management, Cambodia and his master’s degree in business information technology from RMIT University Australia in 2016. He also graduated from the Royal University of Phnom Penh with master’s and bachelor’s degrees in 2008 and 2003. He is also a Deputy director of the Information Technology department, with 15 years of experience in the IT banking sector, IT project management, Blockchain and FinTech.

Chou Sophalla works at the National Bank of Cambodia. He holds an MBA in Accounting and Management Systems from Yokohama National University, Japan, and a BBA in Management from the National University of Management, Cambodia. Over more than 20 years he has focused on banking supervision, deposit protection, and bank resolution, contributing research on financial regulation, risk management, and monetary policy. Alongside his work at the central bank, he has taught courses in banking, finance, accounting, public finance, and risk management at several Cambodian universities.

Sophy Khan is PhD candidate at Royal Academy of Cambodia with cooperated with a Korean University. She graduated with a master’s degree in private law from the Royal University of Law and Economics, Cambodia, from 2011 to 2013. Furthermore, she has participated in many local and international conferences in Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and Europe. Her main focus is on monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of business and project implementation. And she was also granted the Excellent Women Leadership Award from Marissa Wesely, USA in cooperated with Harpswell Foundation, USA, in 2019.

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